We are now under Winter Weather Advisory and it is currently scheduled to continue until 10am tomorrow morning. The images from the NWS show that most of MoCo is expecting about 1-2 inches of snow and a very light amount of ice.

As of now, 7:35pm, two surrounding counties have already announced a delay for tomorrow (Loudoun and Fairfax).

Tonight we’ll have three guest Pencil Predictions in addition to the MoCoSnow Prediction.

First guest prediction is from one of our twitter followers, @FrenchfryHenri. He predicted our last early dismissal perfectly when we didn’t think it was a possibility.

Henry goes with 3 Pencils.

“All outcomes are possible for tomorrow, it’ll just depend on the timing of the storm and how heavy it’ll be.”

Fox 5’s Mike Thomas goes with: 2.5 Pencils.

“Could be some slick spots around in the morning, maybe a little snow up-county as well. But models suggest there will be periods of very light precip and temps should moderate above freezing by mid-morning across many areas. I think a better than normal shot at a delay (delay and reassess would be smartest in my opinion) given majors/treated roads should be alright and slick spots should be patchy….and the fact the advisory ends at 10am…I think schools probably do go in late as opposed to close.”

WUSA9’s Howard Bernstein goes with: 4 Pencils!

“I think we’ll have enough ice in the AM, especially in the northern part of the county to tip the scales to a closing.”

The Final MoCoSnow Pencil Prediction for Monday, 2/11:

I think that the most likely scenario is a delay with a re-evaluation by 7am to see where the roads are at.

Support MoCoSnow by purchasing your ALERTA shirt here

Sunday Night Update with Guest Predictions!

37 thoughts on “Sunday Night Update with Guest Predictions!

  • 02/10/2019 at 7:52 pm
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    I haven’t done my science hw, so I’m praying on a closure… Let’s get this victory royale..

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  • 02/10/2019 at 8:31 pm
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    Why is the app not updated? Is it not necessary? (Just because I feel the closure chance should be more like 50%)

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    • 02/10/2019 at 8:32 pm
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      Correct. Only updated when necessary

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      • 02/10/2019 at 8:35 pm
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        Huh. Ok. Just a suggestion to update it to 50%.

        Do your guests predictions ever effect YOUR predictions?

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        • 02/10/2019 at 8:36 pm
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          Nope, I have mine set then just add theirs.

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  • 02/10/2019 at 8:38 pm
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    Ice is always pesky. For me ice=closure. Although, knowing how MCPS is, I think they will delay with a re-evaluation. Then, it depends based on the ice tomorrow.

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  • 02/10/2019 at 8:40 pm
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    Clarification about the app:
    Because closure is under 50% and delay is over 50%, does this mean that if you had to pick one(closure, full day, delay), you would pick delay?(even after a re-eval)
    thanks, u r a legend

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    • 02/10/2019 at 8:41 pm
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      Thanks. The prediction is detailed in the post above.

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  • 02/10/2019 at 8:49 pm
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    Do you know how often Bernstein gets his predictions correct?

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    • 02/10/2019 at 8:50 pm
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      Not really sure

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  • 02/10/2019 at 9:21 pm
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    How do you make your predictions? Looking at past MCPS data? Any other variables?

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    • 02/10/2019 at 9:23 pm
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      I look at what we’re expected to get based on various weather models, compare situations to similar situations in the past, and get reports on road and school conditions from across the county

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      • 02/11/2019 at 8:47 pm
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        Ok thanks! I’m currently teaching probability and I showed MoCo snow as an example for my students 🙂 thanks for what you do!!

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  • 02/10/2019 at 9:26 pm
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    I would say a 55 percent chance of a delay and 25 percent chance of closure. I know how mcps gave us so many delays and days off that they would probably not close school but a delay is really possible. I would suggest you do your homework today. I give it 2.5 pencils

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  • 02/10/2019 at 9:33 pm
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    Do u think MoCo is more hesitant to close because we already are going into extra days or do u think they are consistent no matter what

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    • 02/10/2019 at 9:33 pm
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      Safety first

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  • 02/10/2019 at 9:45 pm
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    Correct me if I am wrong, but do you think they are waiting for the outcome of tomorrow because I’m seeing a lot of salt trucks. Tell me what you think.

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    • 02/10/2019 at 9:45 pm
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      My thoughts on what will happen are in the article above

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  • 02/10/2019 at 10:18 pm
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    If there is a MoCo Board Of Education meeting tomorrow, will that affect on how MCPS Will Call a Delay/Closure?

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  • 02/10/2019 at 10:28 pm
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    Honestly, I’m fine with school being closed, I have a french test which I’ll probably fail

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    • 02/11/2019 at 2:38 pm
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      Getting a B on your French test doesn’t count as failing…

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  • 02/10/2019 at 10:42 pm
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    I love MoCo Snow!

    My friend’s kids in Utah were crying that life was unfair, last week. One night, it snowed 14 i nches. School started right on time in the morning, with charter schools opening late and serving cold lunch.

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  • 02/11/2019 at 4:20 am
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    When do u thing they will probably call a delay by?

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  • 02/11/2019 at 5:14 am
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    Thank you for the “Alerta” Spanish shirts!!

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    • 02/11/2019 at 9:03 am
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      You’re welcome

      Reply
  • 02/11/2019 at 7:03 am
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    Upsetting there wasn’t even a re-evaluation. Why is this?

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    • 02/11/2019 at 9:03 am
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      I’m pretty sure there was, they just didn’t mention it on the website.

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  • 02/11/2019 at 10:07 am
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    Is there need for a prediction for tomorrow?
    If so, will the prediction be in the evening?

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  • 02/11/2019 at 11:41 am
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    chance of a delay tomorrow????

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  • 02/11/2019 at 3:50 pm
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    Can you please make a update on the moco snow app for Tuesday I really don’t care Beacuse I have concussion so I can’t go anyway but I’m hoping to be weather man so I made a prediction and I want the proffesinals predictions!!

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    • 02/11/2019 at 3:54 pm
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      MoCoSnow is not a professional, but there will be an update this evening.

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  • 02/11/2019 at 4:41 pm
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    About When will the update for Tuesday come out?

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    • 02/11/2019 at 4:42 pm
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      As soon as I have time tonight

      Reply

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