Let’s talk about the incorrect MoCoSnow prediction (I will never hesitate to admit I was wrong) and the MCPS decision to dismiss early.

The worst of the snow has passed and the most recent reports around the county are showing that conditions have already started improving (my drive from Bethesda to Gaithersburg took less than 20 minutes).

I’m sure there are spots that are still messy, so make sure to use caution if you need to be out…especially since scattered snow showers could stick around for a few hours. The photo above shows totals around 1pm, courtesy of NBC4.

Let’s get to the difficult decision MCPS had to make today. Last night it looked like an inch or so was expected. The precip was expected to be light and patchy and based on the forecast I probably would have made the same decision MCPS went with (but I probably would have announced it on the website in the morning 😊).

I’ll be the first to admit that I didn’t think there was a chance of early dismissal. I thought there was a solid chance of a delay and a chance of having the whole day off, but the ultimately…I felt we’d have a full day of school.

With that said, I understand why the decision was made. Conditions deteriorated quickly and there was no way to be certain that they would have improved as the day went on.

The worst of the snow is over and roads have gotten better. MCPS played it safe and I think they made the right call at all times based on the information available when they made their decisions.

Here’s a twitter exchange with user @FrenchFryHenri that I don’t think I’ll be able to live down for a while! 😳😂

Mr. Fry is the man! We are going to have him provide a guest prediction next time it’s necessary to make one.

Support MoCoSnow by purchasing the #RedFont shirt!

Incorrect Prediction and Early Dismissal Decision

44 thoughts on “Incorrect Prediction and Early Dismissal Decision

  • 02/01/2019 at 1:40 pm
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    We are home already early dismissal

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    • 02/05/2019 at 8:12 pm
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      Enjoy the warm temps. Next week is looking very interesting snow lovers.
      Jeff

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  • 02/01/2019 at 1:46 pm
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    Always love your usually spot on predictions! I do think MoCo should have opted for the full day of school (since they didn’t delay or cancel) to give time for the roads to be cleared and treated ~ and to keep parents from having to scurry yet again. But ~ it’s a tough call no matter what they decided and there’s always bound to be criticism no matter the call.

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  • 02/01/2019 at 2:23 pm
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    I was watching the whole commotion and when I saw that it was an early dismissal I checked your twitter and the pinned tweet was Mr. Fry is the man 😂🤣🤣 The roads are not that bad, some highways have a coating, others are not so bad. The funny thing is how all of our storms were on the higher end of things, with the one foot storm being the biggest. It went from 2-4 inches to 8-12 inches!

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  • 02/01/2019 at 2:34 pm
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    THIS MORNING WE WERE OUTSIDE FOR LIKE 40 MINUTES CUZ SOMETHING HAPPEND TO THE BUS BUT BEFORE THE BUS CAME A LADY CRASHED WITH BUT THANKFULLY THEY DID NOT BREAK ANYTHING

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  • 02/01/2019 at 2:46 pm
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    What school have you taught/teaching? Have you ever taught in Roberto?

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    • 02/01/2019 at 2:47 pm
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      I was at Roberto Clemente from 2007-2014

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      • 02/01/2019 at 2:53 pm
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        Aw man! I’m going for the magnet program and my brother told me that you were in Roberto. That would be cool if I got to have a famous celebrity in MoCo as my teacher!

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        • 02/01/2019 at 2:53 pm
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          Haha I’m not a celebrity, but good luck! It’s a great program.

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          • 02/01/2019 at 3:45 pm
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            You have 25K followers! Also, thank you very much!

          • 02/01/2019 at 3:45 pm
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            Thanks! That’s just Twitter alone 😊

        • 02/10/2019 at 7:30 pm
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          The magnet program is AWFUL. PLEASE DONT DO IT PLEASE I BEG

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  • 02/01/2019 at 2:54 pm
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    The Advisory just got extended until 5. A bit more accumulating snow is possible! I’m hoping for 2 inches. MoCo has already had some of the highest totals.
    What do you think? Could we make it to 2 inches by this evening?

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    • 02/01/2019 at 2:55 pm
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      I think some parts of MoCo may have reached 2” not sure though

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      • 02/01/2019 at 2:59 pm
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        Ok
        I saw you after 5th period today. I’m in Mr. Tucker’s 2nd period.

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  • 02/01/2019 at 3:33 pm
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    i think we’re all just happy for the early release

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    • 02/01/2019 at 3:33 pm
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      Yeah, I can’t complain

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  • 02/01/2019 at 3:41 pm
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    I highly doubt it but I have to take my sister to her poms competition at Blair tomorrow. Any chance that school activities are cancelled tomorrow with the weather?

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    • 02/01/2019 at 3:41 pm
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      I don’t think anything will be cancelled tomorrow

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  • 02/01/2019 at 3:43 pm
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    I highly doubt it but I have to take my sister to a poms competition tomorrow at blair. Any chance activities in school buildings are cancelled tmrw?

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  • 02/01/2019 at 11:39 pm
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    Mr. Fry deserves a free MoCo Snow t-shirt

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  • 02/02/2019 at 7:32 am
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    I called my dad as soon as the call was made and he was very confused because apparently the weather forecast said it would stop snowing before 10. It was still snowing at the time, but he expected it to stop before the early release and FAR before the scheduled dismissal. (It didn’t.) I’m an extended day student so my school day ended up being shortened four and a half hours, it was wonderful. (Delays are less awesome because we still have extended day classes.) But a friend of mine apparently had a bus not arrive so she had to walk home, and she was livid. I go to Poolesville and my bus ride is 30 minutes from my school, and all our buses came on time, but I can’t imagine what I would do if my bus didn’t come.

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  • 02/02/2019 at 9:26 am
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    Where can I find a guy who says, “I made a mistake”? 😂😂😂

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  • 02/02/2019 at 9:28 am
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    Sorry, I’ll only ask for weather advice from now on.

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  • 02/05/2019 at 10:02 pm
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    There is a snow threat rumor Monday through Wednesday, if it is something worth posting when will Updayes for it start coming out? Friday? Saturday?

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    • 02/05/2019 at 10:06 pm
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      Something like that

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  • 02/06/2019 at 6:54 pm
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    Is there a chance, if the Monday and Tuesday event does occur, that the snow could shift farther south and we could avoid the ice? Right now the forecast is 1-3 inches of snow/ice on monday night. Could those numbers increase to more moderate totals like 4-6? Or is the system too weak?

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    • 02/06/2019 at 6:55 pm
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      Always a chance

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      • 02/07/2019 at 7:11 pm
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        When will an initial outlook on the Monday night event be out?

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        • 02/07/2019 at 7:12 pm
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          Probably saturday

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          • 02/07/2019 at 7:44 pm
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            Alright then. I’ll be looking!

  • 02/08/2019 at 8:31 am
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    In your opinion what is the most accurate weather app/tv channel/website (besides you) to figure out exactly when snow is coming and how many inches?

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    • 02/08/2019 at 11:00 am
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      We trust pretty much all local meteorologists to provide relatively accurate forecasts.

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  • 02/08/2019 at 4:00 pm
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    Will your posts for next week begin tonight or tomorrow?

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    • 02/08/2019 at 4:51 pm
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      Probably tomorrow evening

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      • 02/09/2019 at 9:10 pm
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        So. . . Is there gonna be a post tonight? Or not. . .

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  • 02/09/2019 at 10:55 pm
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    NWS just updated MoCo to stretching from having less than 1 inch, 1-2 inches,2-4 inches. and a 15% chance of getting 5inches!!! I hope this is good and really effects us this week! Can’t wait for your posts!

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    • 02/09/2019 at 11:18 pm
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      Its changing with every run! Better to wait for tomorrow, thanks for being patient!

      Reply

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